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Market Briefing - May 18, 2009
Copper has enjoyed healthy gains in the recent past, particularly
over April with monthly average prices rising by 17.5% on the previous
monthto $4,407/tonne. The positive sentiment has continued into
May, and stimulated by fund buying, which has allowed copper to
hold onto most of its recent gains, the cash quote is trading around
$4,700/tonne in mid May. Copper prices have also received support
from the decline in inventories. Stocks on the LME, although still
relatively high have now declined to around 374,000 tonnes, 32%
below the cycle peak.
Market surplus expands in January
Last year the copper market was in an oversupply position on the
back of falling demand. As we have highlighted in previous reports
the supply response was not only late, but when it did come (gradually),
it had little impact on pulling back inventories, which
increased to cycle peaks; this saw the market register a surplus
of 363,000 tonnes. More recent data by the International Copper
Study Group (ICSG) suggests that the copper market saw a surplus
of 155,000 tonnes in January. This compares with a 22,000 tonnes
deficit in the same month last year. However we believe that the
ICSG figures overstate the extent of the surplus.
> This article gives the introduction to our latest detailed
analysis on the market. To access a full version of a recent detailed
monthly report on the base metals markets plus a recent briefing
update, click on the links below.
> Base
Metals Market Briefing - December 9, 2008.
> Base
Metals Market Briefing Update - December 16, 2008.
Disclaimer:
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the
information used in this document, GFMS Metals Consulting cannot
guarantee such accuracy and GFMS Metals Consulting does not accept
responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly, or indirectly,
from the use of this information.
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