GFMS are delighted to announce the release of the consultancy's latest, highly anticipated Quarterly Three Year Copper Forecast

Background
Published four times a year, this report gives GFMS' independent insight into the latest developments and trends and offers a 3-year forecast on supply, demand and the price for copper.

The LME copper cash price recently peaked at $9,260/tonne, reaching a new all-time high. Interestingly, this came about despite considerable uncertainty concerning a number of the mature economies.

The rally in the copper price has received some support from the fundamentals with reported inventories trending lower from the highs seen in the first half of this year. GFMS' extensive contacts within China suggest that the "unreported" inventory stockpile built up in 2009 has been reduced considerably in recent months.

Our mine-by-mine production analysis suggests that the industry is still struggling to respond to the new era of high prices due a structural shortage of new mine capacity. In addition, much of the extra output that is being developed is taking place in countries with a high level of political and economic risk.

The positive fundamentals have maintained investment fund activity in the "red metal" and this has also been supported by the general downtrend in the value of the dollar.

A key question facing the market is whether the copper industry is about to enjoy an extended period where copper prices remain well in excess of the marginal costs of production, or whether the exceptionally high prices seen in late 2010 will prove to be a "bubble".

The report offers three different scenarios for copper over the next three years: a best case, a base case, and a worst case. These three scenarios in turn are strongly influenced by three different paths for the world economy in 2010-13 that are described in the forecast.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction & Executive Summary
2. Price Forecasts & Economic Assumptions
3. Copper Consumption
4. Mine and Refined Production

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